iBeth

It's not liquidity, it's uncertainty

I looked at my 403(b) balance the other day.  I didn't mean to--but I'd received a notice that I had to login to see, and the balance is the first screen after you sign in.  Ouch!  My balance is $18,000 lower than my total contributions.  That's my own contributions, not mine + my employer's contributions, so apparently my entire lifetime retirement benefit from being employed has vanished along with $18,000 of my own hard-earned savings.  Thank goodness I don't need to retire in the next few years.

The upside, perhaps, is that I've learned much more about finance than I ever expected to (thank you, PlanetMoney).  I have TED spread and VIX indicators on my homepage.  I know what a liquidity bank is.  I knew enough to be outraged by that Goldman Sachs story in the LA Times.  So I am convinced by what GMU economist Russell Roberts has to say:

When no one knows how the rules of the game are going to change — and they seem to change from week to week — who wants to take a risk? Who wants to borrow money? Who wants to invest? Business and consumers are hunkering down, waiting for the storm of change to pass.

The problem isn't liquidity.

It's uncertainty.

This sounds absolutely right.  It takes courage just to keep putting money in my 403(b).  Forget about making major purchases.  Even though I have tenure, my husband doesn't.  Even though my university has some reserves, they're still letting instructors go.   And even if our jobs remain, who knows what will happen with our extended family?  I would feel like such an idiot if we voluntarily took on a major expense right before a calamity.

Slow News Day

from Google News Top Stories . . . yep, the number one story was the weather in Newark:

Kicking it down the can

Now I want to start kicking things down the can.  I missed Face the Nation last Sunday, so I didn't get to hear Rahm Emanuel tell Bob Schieffer,

"We had a crisis, we kicked it down the can . . . These are – just taking those two examples, these are crises you can no longer afford to kick down the can."

But I did see Emanuel on another show earnestly enumerate a list of reasons for something, "A, blah blah.  B, blah blah.  Four, blah blah blah." 

No, I don't believe these "rhambonics" indicate stupidity any more than I believe that Bushisms indicate stupidity (languagelog pretty much settles the issue on Bushisms, if you're curious.)  I just enjoy them.  Let's hope Emanuel gives lots of interviews over the next few years.

Emma reports on Bill Clinton rally

Emma wrote an article on the Clinton rally we attended for her 3rd grade class newspaper: 

 How many of you got to see Bill Clinton up close? I did! I got there at 8:30 and Mr. Clinton spoke at 12:50. That means we waited over 4 hours! I brought a book, a little bird stuffed animal, a snack, and of course, water.  I almost had to throw away my book! I didn’t exactly capture every word,  but here’s what  I captured:  Hi, blah de blah de blah, Obama. I think I’m very lucky! 

Sarah Palin rally

If only I didn't have to work for a living, I'd have attended more rallies!  Most of them were at impossible times/locations for me.  But I did get to a recent Sarah Palin rally.  Even though I don't agree with her politics, it isn't every day that a woman runs for high office, so I was pleased to be able to attend her rally with my mother-in-law.  (We invited Emma but she said she had seen enough rallies.)

Most bizarre: the directions to the rally that I printed from johnmccain.com were VERY wrong. We got lost twice by following the directions. First, a crucial turn was not indicated. Once we sorted that out, we dutifully followed the rest of the directions as they led us several streets into a gigantic housing development, finally directing us to drive for 15 mins. around "Owenshire Circle" which was, as you might guess from the name, a not-very-long street that just traveled around in a circle past lots of lookalike houses. Very confusing. My map in the car was too old to show the housing development we were in, so we pulled over while I phoned my husband and asked him to get me better directions, and we watched lots of McCain/Palin bumper stickers caravan past us and turn down the same dead end.

Bill Clinton rally

About a month ago, Bill Clinton spoke at my university to rally Obama supporters. Yeah, this post is pretty late, but for the sake of the historical record . . . . 

8yo Emma and I attended this together.  We spent hours waiting in the heat, breathing exhaust from the news trucks and eyeballing the sharpshooters that studied the crowd from various nearby perches.  Fortunately, she brought a book.  Unfortunately, the security people informed her that she wouldn't be allowed to bring the book past the checkpoint.  Apparently, they limit items that can be thrown at the former president.  She started to cry when they told her, but we managed to smuggle the book in anyway but jettisoning all replaceable items from my small purse (tissues, etc.) and cramming it in.  Then she spent most of the speech reading.  That's my girl.

I want my money back. And my time.

About Edwards . . . I agree with Stefania.  Except that I'm not quite as upset about the adultery part. Sadly, adultery is common, and I'm ok with myob.  And I'm not even that upset about the cover-up part, though it was idiotic, because what else is new? 

No, what really upsets me is the money part.  If Edwards needed a cover story for his fling, couldn't he have chosen something less expensive?  I mean really--why pay someone with zero experience more than $100,000 to make four bitsy web videos?  And how does it happen that his PAC continued paying her and Edwards did not know?  Does he not even look at the expenditures of his own PAC?   

I believed in this guy and I even sent him money.  Not a lot of money, true, but I certainly didn't intend it to go to his hot sex for old souls fund. 

[Update: And if this is true, I am through with Mr. John Edwards.  He can pay $100,000+ to Rielle Hunter but he can't keep his promise to high school kids?  Disgusting.  Thanks to Critical Mass for the link.]

[Update: $$$ still flows to Edwards' Ex]

Conservatives Heart Labor Day

I had no idea that U.S. conservatives had such affection for Labor Day!  It warms this union member's heart, truly.  The comments on this topic at Language Log and the Volokh Conspiracy are worth reading, especially (and always) Sarcastro at the latter.

Wafergate continues

This scandal has had the weirdest chain of consequences.  I would never have predicted calls for increased security at the GOP convention, or the firing of a 1800Flowers employee.  (I feel sorry for her, too.)

I'm feeling sorry for this kid

I feel sorry for this student. 

Yes, I think if he participates in a communion service, he should follow the rules.  Yes, I think his demand for an apology for being "physically assaulted" was brash.  But he has returned the wafer.  Perhaps I am unduly influenced by my hope that, had he planned to protest, he would have learned basic facts about the first amendment--but based on the news reports, I do not believe that he planned all along to be disruptive. 

Now, as the story has been picked up by CNN and of course countless blogs, the local diocese has weighed in:

"We don't know 100% what Mr. Cooks motivation was," said Susan Fani a spokesperson with the local Catholic diocese.  "However, if anything were to qualify as a hate crime, to us this seems like this might be it."

We just expect the University to take this seriously," she added "To send a message to not just Mr. Cook but the whole community that this kind of really complete sacrilege will not be tolerated."

A hate crime? Really complete sacrilege?  Seriously?  Not just regular sacrilege?  I'm not surprised when your average blog commenter threatens violence, or even when the Catholic League's Bill Donohue calls for the student's expulsion, but I expected that an official spokesperson would reserve the extreme language for actual crimes with actual victims who actually suffer.

This student's act--as offensive as it apparently is--would not be the worst indignity that God has endured.  Surely He can prevail against a baggie.